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Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of Economics Public director of Globalization Problem Institute General theory of globalization «World for Russia: the way we need it and what we can do with it» (Analytical report open part in brief) September 1998 Contents: |Resume |2 | |I. Information technologies expansion |3 | | | On difference significance in the technological time | | |speed | | |1.2. New resources for new technologies |9 | |1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» |10 | |II. Several consequences of markets globalization |12 | |2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization |12 | |2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism |13 | |!2.3. Financial competition |14 | | Technological process slowdown | | |III. Global regulation for global competition |17 | |3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? |17 | w6 | |3.3. Value of global regulation |18 | About the author in brief Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics. From 1990 till 1993 – expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since 1994 – leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department, since 1996 – referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March 1997 – advisor of the vice-prime-minister – Minister of Internals, since June 1997 – advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On his leaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established a Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after new government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored at the public service. He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany, France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest - «Economy of non-payments» was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997. Resume 1. Information technologies development has brought to: . «meta-technologies» creation, application of which makes it impossible for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the developers of these technologies; . reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects formation to necessary type of conscious and culture formation (transformation from high-tech to high-hume); . acceleration of information technologies development to such extent that «short», theoretical investments are productive for the most advanced information technologies; . approximate depreciation of traditional technologies; . Information society creation in which money plays second role as compared with technologies. 7. Major humanity technological development prospects: . Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries; . Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal «information community», its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community» of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed» countries; . progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries; . Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global financial crises and destructive competition between the USA and European Currency Union. 12. Global monopolies formation is being performed: . At global markets of separate financial instruments; . In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the «transformation value» among them to negligible level) as information technologies advance – in the form of the united global monopoly. These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of the overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be of more malaise character. | The whole development of the humanity including in the field of | |economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the | |nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two | |fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development, | |information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition| |globalization, primarily in the financial markets. | !lvl0I. Information technologies expansion 1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actual creation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very «information community» which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so that no one takes the matter seriously. Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitive potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be hardly perceivable by those who are beyond of that process. The most important way of showing this qualitative technological breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and at the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick distribution of the so-called «meta-technologies». Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of thier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologies principially impossible to compete with the developer of these technologies in a serious level. This may be called a price for access to the effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such technologies and which might be found in dealer and licensed systems. Modern advanced technologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of a licensee. The most telling examples of meta-technologies are: . Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to control it (external control principle of the plugged in computer has bee already realized); . Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all telephone messages all over the world; in the nearest future computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and also wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible; . Different organization technologies; their main subgroups: * Control technologies, including corporation activity organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country the developer, such technologies reduce competitiveness of the corporations which represent other cultures; we should also note that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society and as the result the culture which not only enriches it but remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of this society weaker; * Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation of the latter to the forms of influence arouses objective necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated technologies which at first appear in the leading country and then are distributed in other countries mass conscious of the society using technologies which influence it will get out of hand of the state. Nowadays the said technologies have become predominating for their being the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly spread for the last years have already become a technological component of the information society: if we speak about it from the technological point of view we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their peculiarities we intend first of all meta-technologies. It is quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation of new technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation of information society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader of this process Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor for information technologies development as compared with the previous of 1997 year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of already existing technical means for «information transparency» of all countries — «transparency» as far as it can be understood quiet homogeneous for the countries creating meta-technologies and aiming at protection of their global competitive advantages. But significance of information technology distribution is not limited by creation of meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological, intellectual and technological leadership of their creators. Besides provision of global information transparency the most important part of information technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still potential) for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious. The point is that unlike traditional «material» technologies the product of which are the goods, the product of information technologies nolens volens is a certain condition of the human conscious including mass conscious. Moreover: the most significant part of information technologies was primarily aimed at such reconstruction of human conscious taking it into consideration as the major purpose for influence. It is more effective to influence conscious than to influence the material. Technologies connected with it have already received the name. They are called «high-hume» versus «high-tech». In previous times technologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they are reorienting to the public conscience, public culture. Besides their high productivity, «high-hume» technologies differ with high changeability, i.e. maximum speed of making progress. The pioneers of their exploration — the USA — engage the most mobile and in correspondingly the most effective form of financial capital — venture capital — to creation of the most effective type of information technologies. Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinary technologies as it is may be shown by the experience of the developing countries is impossible because of «slowness» of the non-information technologies: performance of any project connected with such technologies demand for larger time period than traditionally «short» venture capital is ready to be invested. In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed of the venture capital turnover and establishment of traditional technologies. Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are not effective for the national economy because of the said factors: it leaves without creating anything real and leaving after it only desolation. But the speed of information technology development has a qualitative higher rank than ordinary technologies. That is why information technologies are the only type of technologies in respect of which «short» venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their technological cycle is so small that it corresponds to the speed of the financial capital turnover. That is why the American economy should not be afraid of «distending a soap exchange bubble»: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside. Actually the huge part of these venture investments is directed into the information technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of their development carries for their recipient quite normal productive but not venture character. This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economics of other countries of the world. This is the reason for its medium term stability in the forthcoming global financial |On difference significance in the technological time speed | |Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently | |demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The| |bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new | |technological principles demands for such period of time that these | |principles become outdated. | |Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the | |sphere of technological race to the practical realization of new | |decisions reaches the slow scale of «technological time» and fails as| |compared with its competitors which remain in the zone of «pure» | |sphere of new ideas development in which the technological times | |changes in a quicker way. | But application of «high-hume» technologies is connected also with danger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence arouse the most dangerous professional illness of the employees engaged in the sphere of public relations – it! is the temptation to solve problems not in the real way but with the help of the so-called «brainwashing» method or we may use more exact German analogue of this term: ote Seelenmassage». The first problem of «high-hume» is connected with it: on carrying away by it the control system (of the state or of the corporation) starts the process of self-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principally important: «high-hume» technologies are dangerous not only for the object of their influence, but for their user as they also transform conscious of the user. The second problem: to reach the political result it will be enough for the user of the «high-hume» technology to form necessary type of conscious of no more than 20% of the population being the elite of the society and influence on taking resolutions and being the example. Efforts in this direction evidently draw the line between the elite and general mass of population and create within the society internal disagreements between the self-hypnosed elite and the rest population. Moreover: the elite being apart from the population began to percept the ideas, which correspond to its principles. In the result of it 80% of the intellectual potential of the society is lost – while the Thus, gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of the elite class of the society is limited by the area of democratic borders of the elite class itself and that is why it reduces the society potential. We saw the example of the Russian reformers of 1992 — 1998 years, who could run away from the population by application such advanced information technologies to themselves to such extent as the communists could do for seventy years of their domination. In the result of it we have a paradox: more advanced informa6tion society should be less flexible and adaptive and as a result less viable but more stable in its confrontation with non-information society. Is not it the reason for paradox viability of the authoritarian regimes in the end of XX century? It is possible that this phenomenon is an «implemented guarantee» from the informational imperialism, from subordination of the entire world to one the most informed country. And the total mortification of the conscious of other countries with the help of information technologies is impossible because of differences in cultural aspect which automatically defend minimal intellectual and information sovereignty of each nation separately. But it would be too naive to hope for it as the major resolution of the forthcoming problems under the circumstances of gradual integration of cultures into united culture for the whole world (On the first stage into three major cultures — Christian, Islamic and Buddhistic). Taking into consideration a private case of information war – «culture aggression» (i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the potential of which it does not correspond) as an instrument of international competition (applied only mainly in the inconscient way, in the order of markets winning for sale — the carries of such culture), we should re- estimate the role playing by traditions. Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it is the attempt to live as if nothing has happened. In the conditions of reconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors of the tradition starts to act not like an ostrich, but it goes through minimization of negative consequences in changes having «squatter» order: attempt to cancel by ignoring of these charges or cancellation of their major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of the information attack by the information method. * * * The above said means that creation and distribution of meta- technologies reduces significance of financial resources from the point of view of competitiveness of the societies and corporations: if they have been the main source of power earlier, now they become only its consequence. Intellect has become the main source of the market power. Intellect is embodied in organizational structures of the research and market corporations creating meta-technologies and holding control over such technologies. Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into the background after creation of the information society. The reason lies in the following: that property right for the meta-technologies makes an organically inalienable part of the holder and his intellect, with the help of which these technologies have been created and are supported, according to technological reasons. Meta-technologies in a greater degree will transform in a «second nature» making the borders and creating conditions for development of the personality and the humanity in general. As such these technologies will gradually exchange market relationship and property rights performing these functions since the moment of money appearance. 1.2. New resources for new technologies Disintegration of the USSR has given to the developed countries such a financial and intellectual possibility that they were able to speed up their development on the «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR (differences in orientations and correspondingly outlook for Europe and the USA shows that the first one has got finances and the latter – intellect). Thus, having won in the cold war developed countries not only destroyed their global antagonist as we have got used to consider but they managed to do more: they have captured and used its resources which were truly speaking dreadfully used (the socialism differed from the capitalism also in the fact that on preparing the best in the world people resources it united them into organizations in the worst way). It has a principal importance that in the new information postindustrial world the most important resources are first of all finances and intellect, which may travel very easily from one territory to another, but not the territory with fixed production and people. That is why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who are capable to organize system of government, had no sense in the nineties: new major resources for development are not attached to a certain territory! Nowadays the effective frontier consists not only in recovery of the society within such a territory but otherwise in isolation within the society with further exemption from its main part of healthy and progressive elements, i.e. people – carriers of finances and intellect. In such method of frontier the progress of the more developed «frontiering» society goes at expense of degradation of the society on frontier, and the scales of degradation of the society on destruction outgo victory in culture and in progress of the more developed society. As compared with traditional harmonic processes of development, development at expense of a alien degradation has always the character of a «play with negative sum». Thus, distribution of information technologies has changed on a qualitative level value of resources placing on the top position intellect and finances, which are more mobile nowadays. It has changed the process of cooperation between developed and developing countries: constructive frontier of the last by the latter with the help of direct investments into the real sector has started to climb down to the destructive frontier with the help of exemption of financial and intellectual resources. Understanding of realias and consequences of such transformation has given birth to the theory of «dead countries»: under influence of the new information imperialism, the developing countries become actually «dead», as they irretrievably loose not only the most important intellectual resources for development but also the possibility to produce them. This leaves nothing in store for them. 1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» Irreversible lag of the developing countries is creating not only by the reason of «wash» from them of the most valuable under the new conditions resources, and also due to collapse of the usefulness of traditional resources and technologies which these societies dispose. As the most important result of each new level of development of the humanity from the point of view of the practical politics is comparative depreciation of all «old» technologies and products or their appliance as they are distributed. Depth of such depreciation will be in proportion to the primitiveness of the «old» technologies and to the level of monopolization and competitiveness of the market of such technology products. In accordance with this rule we have a depreciation first of all technologies of the mineral industry because of distribution of the information technologies. First of all this process influences oil, world market of which is liberalized in the most extent. And as the result of it we have a regular reduction of its price in the world market (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of no more than 8 dollar per barrel) that is followed not so much by the agreement between the USA corporation and the Saudi Arabia but more deeper factor: creation of new information technological lifestyle which has new qualitative level. Such lifestyle has started depreciation of the previous lifestyles by the fact of its appearance. That is why reduction of prices all over the world for the raw materials and in a broader sense for the products engaging little intellectual work will become a tendency deviation from which will be non- significant fluctuations. In this sense the USA actively placing its not so much ecologically but intellectually «impure», i.e. too simple productions has got a maximal guard from negative consequences of their own technical breakthrough. * * * Summing up the above said we may make a list of consequences for new technologies development: . Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time keeping the existing tendencies – compelling character between: v developed and the rest countries; v creating new technological principles by the developed countries (it is possible that we should use the term «the most developed / advanced countries») and the rest developed countries; . Insulation, which take place in all countries, of people engaged in information technologies into internal «information community», its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community» of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed» countries; . progress termination or its abrupt slowdown (at least technical) beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries; . reduction of the number of developed and the most developed countries because of hard competition. XXVI. Several consequences of markets globalization 2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization The process of distribution of information technologies is influenced by the process of globalization which is created by the process of distribution of information technologies but which has the same level of importance. Formation of the united world markets at least in the financial sphere and gradual integration of the global markets of different financial instruments into united world market includes into the agenda the question referring to creation of the global monopolies. The reason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide a single market. Well-known examples of market division had either quite a short period of existence, as compared with the term of existence of the domination product, or were based on objective backsets. That made access to a part of competitors to any principally significant element of the market more complicated. Information technologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum and also an «entrance fee» to the global financial markets destroy these backsets, eliminating any possibilities for any stable part of these markets. Term of existence of the dominating product – information – is going down to zero that makes practically impossible even temporal division of these markets. In the result of it creation of global monopolies has got two simultaneous directions: Formation of global monopolies in the global markets of separate financial instruments; Formation of the united global monopoly in the result of integration of the said markets (reduction of «price for transformation» from one market to another down to a very small level). The American government plays the role of the latter monopoly as it has very close contacts with the based in the territory of the USA transnational corporations including financial most of which due to the specifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation. The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recently terminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one part, to the national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and on the other part – to the internal level of political life of the country controlling over the major part of these capitals and technologies. (In 1997 during the progress of the proamerican «team of young reformers», the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out that the sphere of the most effective lobbying of several matters in the internal Russian politics had transformed from the Governmental level and the level of the President's Administration to the level of the Congress and the USA administration. In the USSR all matters having principal importance referring to development of the republics or regions should be solved not by their own authorities but by the curators of the corresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.) 2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalization will elapse against the most important event of the century – commencement of the process for euro integration. Commencement of European currency integration will be the first real after establishment in the beginning nineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which has chances to become a success to depth regional integration up to the level which will dominate over global integration. Integration of «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking systems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a great amount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards). Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in dollars. Transformation of these settlements into euro will be after integration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long, but it will release several tens of milliard dollars. At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500 euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote of the USA denominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the major part of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the countries of the currency union but also in the neighboring countries, - also tens of milliard dollars. Apparent non-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders of the future of such dollars carries an extremely destructive character of inactivity not only for the USA but also for the rest of the world. Actually this inactivity provokes the USA to strengthen the process of further destabilization of the financial system of the world. European dollars and China dollars should be absorbed by other countries not to destabilize the USA on their coming back to the country. Such absorbation of the world reserve currency to a great extent happens only under the conditions of a very deep economic destabilization. Such extent may be only compared with its release under the process of euro integration. Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global competitor – the USA – in a strategic plan provokes the latter to make destructive steps in respect of not only the eurozone economic power of which is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of the third parties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this reason these countries are a favorable potential recipient of the releasing dollars. The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it is Brazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China. 2.3. Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganization of national economic system can not be the decision for a problem even if such method allows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of its being very expensive. There are two final and real variants to solve the problem: First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars into large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA and Europe (for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment of the united transport European-Asian line «London-Tokio»). As Russia still remains under political influence of the USA and under economic influence of Europe, sterilization of the extra dollars of the world in the territory of Russia will be for the USA an exchange of a part of its geopolitical influence to the short-term and medium-term economic safety. This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem (for example: it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy of Japan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep healthening or at least readiness for it. The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollar runoff to the destabilizing «second economics» of the world for organization of the head-on competitive collision with the eurozone, first premonition of which could be found with non-united European economy in the September, 1992, and with only starting its trip to integration economy of the South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the 1997 year. This scheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative and make its own choice of time, sphere and the character for this collision that taking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an advantage. At static consideration of outlook for such collision based on comparison of the already existing resources, Europe has advantageous chances. But as compared on the point of view of dynamics taking into consideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies and actually «natural» (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly of the USA on holding its holding and development performed with taking into consideration cardinal differences of the American and European bureaucracy (the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to make our choice in favor of the USA if we have a long-term outlook for future. Influence of «dynamic» factors of the technological quality and bureaucracy on the modern competition may be indirectly seen comparison of losses borne by European and American capitals in Russia and South-Eastern Asia: in both cases losses of Europeans were greater than that of the Americans from all points of view. Besides, if in the USA losses were borne only by structures, which do not make the main part of the national economy, with high risk possibility, but in Europe – losses were borne by the banks making the basic part of its banking system. There is no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion of effectiveness of two financial and governmental systems will change greatly. Besides, the USA will always be able to carry out discrimination in this or that form of at least a cash part of dollars which are outside the USA. It may be performed for example under the slogan of struggle with international crime: first of all, this thesis is a standard method using by the USA in its international competitiveness, and then – it is true: turnover of the major part of the US dollars outside the territory of the USA in this or that form is connected with law violation, and, thus, the USA progress is based to a certain extent on lurking stimulation of the criminal activity outside the USA. Of cause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the most important financial part of the economic power of the USA – usage of their national currency as an international reserve currency and that is why it may be used only as «the last means». But in any case not depending on the result of the global financial confrontation between the USA and European Currency Union it will lead to the unfavorable event for the humanity: cardinal slowdown of the China economic development which may be followed by its destabilization, regress and even disintegration. China mainly develops as an export oriented country integrated into the markets of Europe and the USA. Collision will reduce purchasing capacity of the outgoing party and correspondingly will reduce its import including from China. And this collision won’t depend on the result of collision between Europe and the USA. China will hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its export, which will be the catalyst of all its internal problems, which are now in an inchoative stage. Destabilization of China will be such an event that will be able up to 2015 year set the whole world economy in chaos (except the winner: the USA or the eurozone). Truly speaking, victory of the latter will be a Pyrrhic victory: leaving behind the competitors and together with them the whole world for a generation (of people and main technologies), it will loose the main sale markets for its products that will slowdown its own development. In that case we will have a losing or at least conservation of the most advanced technologies: in the event of eurozone victory – because it does not know how to create them, and in the event of the USA victory – because of abrupt reduction of the sale markets and realization of these technologies, that will weaken in cardinal way stimulus for their development an will reduce resources engaged for such purposes. Thus, transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the USA connected with integration of euro and release of the extra dollars to the level of negative competition will be followed by the possibility of slowdown of the development of the whole mankind. III. Global regulation for global competition 3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? Possibility of slowdown of the development of general human technical progress as it was shown in the previous paragraph is a minor point of the general rule: development may have only total character. Any attempt to force back the competitors disrupt the development making it narrower and poor and increasing the level of monopolization through reduction of sale markets to the products of the winner, and leads, thus, to the total slowdown of the development and stagnation. It is quite evident: for the mankind itself problems of its own development has already become very difficult according to our traditional understanding. National states come across with such thing that their «habitat» is spontaneously formed by overnational structures (including overnational structures holding meta-technologies), which, thus, predetermine their actions and lead the mankind to serious cataclysms and abrupt slowdown of the development due to their egoistic motives. If we do not want to allow the described consequences it is necessary to establish that very international economic regulation which was mentioned in practical terms after Lenin for the first time by G. Soros: «economic UNO», which differs from the already existing political economy with qualitatively smaller level of bureaucratization as financial processes have qualitative difference as they are more quick and correspondingly demand for their regulation quicker actions and effectiveness in general than that of the political processes. Existing intellectual and consulting «stages» of global financial groups notwithstanding to the dominating influence on them of the USA, may become an embryo of such organization. The main trace of character for such organization providing as in the case with UNO principal capability shall become the general understanding of reality of mutual destruction enforcing the strongest partners to search for the compromise with more weak partners and even vesting them with right of veto in respect of strategic and more complicated matters. 3.2. New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods» The main task of the organization aimed at performance of international economic regulation is the regulation of the transnational monopoly activity. Besides it is very important to understand that the old TNC are not the owner of the world any longer. The global financial groups, development of common and meta-technologies replace them. These groups are very often non-formalized (that makes their regulation more complicated), but their effectiveness, mobility and many-sidedness exceed analogue qualities of the traditional TNC. For better understanding of the actual problem it will be enough to note that coincided with increase of activity transformation in 1993 of researchers performed by transnational corporations from the special body of the UNO (UNCTC) which in general was able to meet the task, to the lower level – the department of the UNCTC, which considers development of the TNC mainly from the departmental positions of this organization (in respect of trade and development) and due to institutional reasons in general cannot cope with complex observance and analysis of their activity. This is the first sign of finding by this or that group of the crucial influence: termination of unpleasant for this group (as a minimum independent, and in case of absence in demand in advertising – any external) researches of this group. As we can see it in the first chapter, the technological leader of the mankind – Mr. Gates – is only going to provide information transparency of other countries – but overnational monopolies influencing the world greatly leave him behind for several years preventively liquidating globally even a possibility of primitive statistical research of the development. 3.3. Value of global regulation Increase of influence of the overnational monopolies may reproduce the situation of the end of twenties and thirties of this century. At that time domination of private monopolies in the economies of the most developed countries (including to certain extent the USSR) had lead to their stagnation and to the Great Depression. There were formed on the national levels mechanisms of state control over monopolies in the course of the struggle with the Great Depression, but it was defeated only in the course of preparation for World War II. Taking into consideration these events but from the point of view of power, we should pay our attention to very significant drawbacks of the purely economic approach. Thus, we got used to consider the immediate cause of the Great Depression the mistake made by the American government: in that very moment when from the economic point of view it was necessary to alleviate financial policy it was otherwise cardinal toughen that was followed by crash on the stock exchange and economic catastrophe. But the fact which from the economic point of view was inexcusable mistake, from the political point of view it was the only way out. As in those days America had to solve the main and the only question of power. Question of the economic welfare was of a minor importance for any practical politician. When there is a threat to economic conjuncture there was a question: who should govern the country – state under conditions of democracy oriented in general to the interests of the society, or several private monopolies («oligarchies») oriented to their own interests which are in contradiction to the social interests. And for the purpose of restoration of its dominating position partially lost after creation and heyday of private monopolies in the twenties, the American government without any doubt and at once with determination which is very typical for Mr. Chubais (Russian reformer known for his extreme and drastic measures aimed at improvement of economic situation in Russia – annotation of the translator) plunged the country into unknown in the history of mankind catastrophes which destroyed almost the half of national economy and left a scar in the soul of every American survived in these catastrophes. I would like also to underline two 60 years old events important for better understanding of the current situation. First of all, this dreadful resolution was right from the historical point of view, as private monopolies due to objective reasons were unable to perform necessary functions of the state, and their domination could be followed by greater catastrophe for the society, though it could happen later (that is quite evidently shown on the example with Russia of 1995 – 1998 years). Secondly, it was a spontaneous resolution adopted on the level of collective conscious (or even «collective unconscious») of the state and the society. There are not proves for the fact that the political aspect of resolution was established by several even holding posts of a very high rank participants of the event. Though it is evident that they fully sensed the political aspect of the events described would never want to disclose it. It is possible that in the nearest future the mankind will have to go through spontaneous and non-understanding by several contemporaries resolution of such a question referring to power (taking into consideration accelerating course of progress) on the level of world economy and world policy. It is possible that it will be as difficult for developed economics as it was difficult for industrial and financial centers of the USA in the end of twenties (that is indirectly proved by our forecast on slowdown of technical progress of the mankind), and it will be also destructive for less developed countries as it was destructive for the American agricultural godforsaken regions of that period of time. It is also possible that «economic UNO» which was spoken above will be created as a mechanism to control over overnational corporations and mainly to control over global financial groups. And as the result it may become the power of the world. As for the external event referring to our economic system (i.e. referring to the whole mankind) which will find out the way from depression resulting after crisis, this event will also leave no time for delay and compromise and it will mobilize the mankind as World War II did it. And it is impossible to foresee such event even with the lowest positive degree of accuracy. We cannot but hope the leaders of the mankind (to which we cannot refer our country) like 60 years ago will be the first to see it and notify the other with word of mouth of their strategist and city mad people.